Open Source To Continue Growth - IDC

Worldwide revenue from open source software will grow at a 22.4 percent compound annual growth rate to reach $8.1 billion by 2013, according to a recent IDC study.

The attentive reader will notice that this forecast is "considerably higher" than 2008. IDC (News - Alert) officials give three reasons for that: One, the bottom-up list used to calculate the revenue has expanded through an effort to include more projects in the forecast. Secondly, open source software "has had a much higher level of acceptance over the past 12 months than previously expected," IDC officials say, and finally, the economy accelerated the uptake and use of open source software in the closing months of 2008.

The study also finds that hybrid business models seem to be increasing. IDC officials say it is "likely" that this will end up as "the most prevalent business model, with on-premise vendors adding SaaS (News - Alert), SaaS vendors offering on premise, OSS vendors selling variants," as well as closed source vendors offering more OSS.

"The open source software market has seen a strong boost from the current economic crisis," agrees Michael Fauscette, group vice president, Software Business Solutions. Fauscette thinks if OSS vendors play their cards right they could turn a windfall situation into a permanent business advantage: "As the overall software industry continues to consolidate, it will be key for OSS vendors to reach scale if they plan to continue as a standalone business."

The study also finds large software vendors like IBM, Sun, Dell, HP, and Oracle (News - Alert) making "significant amounts" of indirect revenue from their activities with and support of OSS: "This has greatly aided mainstream adoption and acceptance of OSS," IDC officials note.

A couple months ago TMC had the news that according to the IDC, the unified communications market in Europe was worth $2.6 billion in 2008, and will grow at a CAGR of 39 percent to a value of $13.5 billion by 2013. "This makes it one of the brightest spots in a very tough technology market," IDC officials remarked at the time.