PC Shipments Plummet, Post-PC Era Picks up Speed

PC shipments declined the most they ever have in the fourth quarter of 2012, IDC (News - Alert) says. The sharp contraction already has lead equity analysts downgrading Microsoft and other firms in the device and semiconductor sectors.

Some will point to the sales trend and see clear evidence of the coming post-PC era, where lots of devices are gateways to Internet content. For that reason, it’s logical to argue that, over time, PC operating systems, and smartphone and tablet operating systems, could merge.

Another possible explanation of the PC decline is that the services and applications now use cloud computing, and are not resident on each of the discrete devices. What we will call the era of computing after “personal computing” is not so clear.

What does seem clear is that if historical precedents continue to hold, we’ll see a massive change in industry leadership – a huge shift of value creation and equity value. Even names such as Google (News - Alert) and Apple could someday be seen as “former industry leaders,” as many might argue Microsoft and Dell are in danger of becoming, or have already become.

What also seems clear, though, is that the wide area communications “content” of computing has changed, as the computing architectures have changed. There always has been some need for WAN communications in the mainframe and minicomputer businesses.

The advent of the personal computer era created a huge need for local area networks, and arguably increased demand for WAN communications.

The Internet era requires WAN communications. That, for service providers, will be the biggest implication of the coming era, whatever it’ll be called.

Local processing was the norm during the mainframe and minicomputer eras, with some demand for WAN connections. Local communications was a hallmark of the PC era.

Cloud computing, mobile computing, ambient computing – or whatever name we eventually will agree upon for the coming era – is fundamentally based on the use of WAN services. In fact, the coming era is the first to be based on WAN connections.

Netbooks were a half step. Tablets are a bigger step. Neither type of device absolutely depends on WAN connections all the time. But those devices require WAN communications to load programs. There are few other easy methods for application input and output.

Smartphones require networks to function, unless people are on airplanes and can’t use the communications function.

Chromebooks, likewise, and possibly future Androidbooks, must have a connection to the Internet to do most things. And that’s an indication of where we’re going. People and machines will rely on Internet connections for their essential functioning. And that will have huge implications for ISPs, since “computing” will largely be impossible without wide areas network communications.