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Global BTS Transceiver Market Analysis & Forecast, 2016-2020, 12th Edition

[October 26, 2016]

Global BTS Transceiver Market Analysis & Forecast, 2016-2020, 12th Edition

NEW YORK, Oct. 26, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Despite severe chaos with the supply chain caused by the grafting probe in China, the global macrocell base station transceiver (TRx) market grew 31% in 2015 and beat our forecast by 120% Total TRx unit shipments across all air interfaces and frequency bands were x million for 2015, a record year of shipments for the industry This report only focuses on the macrocell base station TRx market How well did we do in our forecast from a year ago? The not so good: We were incorrect in our prediction of the total market with a +120% variance We were incorrect in our prediction of the LTE market with a +162% variance

We were incorrect in our prediction of the W-CDMA market with a +40% variance We were incorrect in our prediction of the GSM market with a -47% variance We were incorrect in our prediction of the CDMA market with a -76% variance A negative % variance means our forecast was higher than actual shipments while a positive % variance means our forecast was lower than actual shipments Overall, if we had to give ourselves an assessment, we believe we did a horrible job in our overall forecast for 2015

This was based upon our belief that the grafting probe was going to defer macrocell BTS shipments in China until 2016 However, the OEMs were still able to manufacture base stations and transceivers with the sizable amount of inventory that was shipped into the channel at the end of 2014 and in Q1 of 2015 We continue to believe that many market research reports attempt to quantify the overall wireless infrastructure base station equipment market in terms of monetary value Analyzing the total economic impact of the global base station market is important but we continue to base the thesis of this report on the estimated unit shipments by each OEM

We believe that this approach continues to lead the market place in offering a deeper and more compelling understanding of the underlying currents of market share gains and losses across frequency bands and air interface standards within the industry In this twelfth edition of the report, we have added a pro forma analysis for Nokia hat breaks out the individual shipments for Alcatel-Lucent which was purchased by Nokia in 2015 The closing of the transaction was in January 2016

2015 Review: The Year of the Chinese Grafting Probe and Inventory Chaos

For the past two years, the supply chain for the wireless infrastructure industry has experienced complete chaos In 2014, it was Freescale Semiconductor that was the culprit, causing severe LDMOS RF Transistor shortages across the industry In 2015, it was the Chinese government that caused demand issues for the supply chain as every segment within the Chinese economy became a target for its sweeping grafting probe As soon as the supply for RF LDMOS transistors began to increase in the second half of 2014, easing the shortages experienced across the industry, the Chinese government began investigating corruption and grafting across all aspects of every sector within China including the military

This probe began in November 2014 and hit full stride by Q1 2015, causing significant delays in procurement for the Chinese mobile operators and Chinese wireless equipment OEMs Expectations were high for 2015 due to the component shortages experienced in 2014 A significant number of component suppliers saw demand plummet in Q2 2015 and continue to remain weak through Q3 until orders began to firm up in Q4 In analyzing the air interfaces, multi-mode/LTE technology accounted for x% of overall shipments, up from x% in 2014 while W-CDMA was x%, GSM at x%, CDMA at x% and TDSCDMA was zero Total macrocell BTS transceiver units shipped for 2015 were x million, up 31% from 2014 This was the highest ever level recorded by EJL Wireless Research since the inception of our TRx market analysis Shipments exceeded our 2015 forecast by 120% Our goal remains to stay within +/-10% of actual results relative to our forecast within the near term (12 months), however it is impossible to predict what the financial markets or political unrest may do to impact global cap ex spending or scheduled spectrum auctions

The most important metric was our forecast of the LTE market which was off by 162% Given the legacy nature of GSM, CDMA and TD-SCDMA technologies and their relatively small market share, getting LTE right going forward is the only thing that matters Unfortunately, our bet on the impact of the grafting probe for LTE shipments was wrong in 2015 We expect that stand alone GSM shipments will reach a bottom in 2018 and remain flat through 2020 While many operators have expressed the intent to switch off their GSM networks over the next five years, we believe that the technology will continue to remain in use probably through 2020 or beyond We also believe that given the potential difficulties surrounding the introduction of VoLTE to replace W-CDMA for voice, W-CDMA may also linger on longer than expected
However, stand alone W-CDMA solutions will be replaced with multi-RAT solutions so shipments of W-CDMA only will still continue to decline over the next five years We have zeroed out shipments for CDMA by 2019

Read the full report: http://www.reportlinker.com/p03874341-summary/view-report.html

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