|[July 11, 2014]
Fitch Rates Wayne-Westland Community Schools, MI's ULTGOs 'AA' SBLF/'A' Underlying; Outlook Stable
NEW YORK --(Business Wire)--
Fitch Ratings assigns the program rating of 'AA' to the following
Wayne-Westland Community Schools, MI's (the district) bonds:
--Approximately $37.41 million refunding bonds (general obligation -
unlimited tax; ULTGO), series 2014.
The 'AA' rating is based upon qualification for the Michigan School Bond
Loan Fund (SBLF), whose bond guarantee program is rated 'AA' by Fitch.
The bonds are expected to price the week of July 14. Proceeds will be
used to refund all or a portion of the district's outstanding 2004
refunding bonds, dated Dec. 16, 2004, which are due and payable May 1,
2015 through May 1, 2019 for net present value savings of approximately
In addition, Fitch assigns an 'A' underlying rating to the series 2014
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
The bonds are secured by the district's full faith and credit and
unlimited pledge of ad valorem taxes. The 2014 bonds are also secured by
the state of Michigan's SBLF guarantee.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
PRESSURED FINANCES: Significant revenue declines over the past two
years, driven by enrollment falloffs and state funding cuts, caused a
sizable reduction in general fund reserves.
PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVING BUDGETARY PERFORMANCE: Following significant
revenue pressure, management reduced expenditures through negotiation of
long-term labor contracts which generate material recurring savings.
Together with recently increased state funding, Fitch expects the cuts
to enable the district to return to budgetary balance and rebuild
reserves to adequate levels.
BELOW-AVERAGE INCOME; STRAINED LOCAL ECONOMY: District income indicators
are below average and the regional economy pressured as residents
participate in the weakened greater Wayne County economy. Fitch rates
the county's implied ULTGOs 'BB'/Rating Watch Negative, Taxable assessed
value (TAV) declined significantly since 2008 and has been slow to
MODERATE DEBT AND LONG-TERM LIABILITIES: The district's debt burden is
moderate as the district is exposed to the state's underfunded pension
plan. Carrying costs for debt service, pension and other post-employment
benefits (OPEB) were moderate in 2013 and projected to remain manageable.
STATE CREDIT QUALITY: The enhanced rating is sensitive to changes in the
state of Michigan credit quality and the SBLF program, on which the 'AA'
rating is based.
FINANCIAL PROFILE KEY: The underlying 'A' rating is sensitive to
material changes in enrollment, state funding and other factors that
affect the district's ability to maintain budgetary balance and
strengthen currently low reserves.
The district provides pre-K through 12th grade, adult and career
education services and is located in western Wayne County in southeast
Michigan which encompasses approximately 27.4 square miles. The district
includes all of the city of Wayne, most of the city of Westland and
small portions of Canton Township and the cities of Inkster, Dearborn
Heights and Romulus with an approximate population of 100,000.
Enrollment has declined 14% since 2004 with some stabilization in 2014
following the expansion of some programs which attracted additional
students from neighboring districts.
WEAKENED ECONOMY; TAV DECLINES
Wayne County has suffered significant tax base and employment declines
in the recent recession but continues to have a significant commercial
and industrial employment base. The district employment base includes
several Ford Motor Company (News - Alert) facilities, currently employing 3,576, and is
complemented by Oakwood/Annapolis hospital (1,200) and numerous small
manufacturing and retail firms. Long-term challenges remain for the
regional economy as it continues to slowly recover and diversify away
from the automotive industry.
The district's equalized tax base has declined 18% since 2010 with a
much lower annual decline of 1% for 2014. Flat-to-minimal TAV growth is
projected over the next five years according to the district. Market
value per capita is below average at $45,000. District wealth levels
overall are also below average, with very low levels in the city of
Wayne and stronger levels in Westland. Per capita money income in 2011
was low at 86% of the state and 78% of the national average, with median
household income at 89% and 82%, respectively.
The city of Westland unemployment rate remained below average during the
recent economic downturn and was 4.8% for April 2014. Data for the city
of Wayne are not available. The Wayne County unemployment rate continues
to be elevated at 8.9%, above the state (7.3%) and national (5.9%)
REVENUE PRESSURE; EXPENDITURE CUTS; ADEQUATE RESERVES
The district has faced budgetary pressure as a result of declining
enrollments, which coupled with per pupil reduced state funding over the
past few years has resulted in several general fund operating deficits.
These deficits reduced unrestricted fund balance to a low $5.2 million
or 5% of expenditures at fiscal year-end 2013. State funding represents
a high 80% of the annual budget.
In response to fiscal pressures, management launched several expenditure
reduction initiatives in early 2013, including renegotiation of all
labor contracts which include 5% pay reductions, step freezes, and
changes to high-deductible health insurance plans. Management estimates
labor savings of a recurring $10 million through fiscal 2017 when the
current contracts expire. Additionally, the district focused on energy
conservation for savings and expanded academic offerings to attract
additional students to stem enrollment declines. Enrollment declines
were much less than budgeted for fiscal 2014 and appear to be leveling
off. Management projects that these measures reduced the budgeted fiscal
2014 general fund operating deficit of $2.4 million to $1 million, and
will maintain fund balance at a low $4 million or 4%.
The adopted fiscal 2015 budget is conservative with regard to per-pupil
state funding and enrollment and projects a $500,000 deficit. The budget
is expected to benefit from a state legislative school aid bill signed
following the district's budget adoption which will increase per-pupil
funding and result in an approximately $1.1 million increase in
unbudgeted revenues. This should offset the budgeted deficit and result
in a small surplus. However, Fitch believes the district will continue
to face budgetary challenges with a high reliance on state funding and
enrollment vulnerability. The district's ability to budget
conservatively, further cut expenditures, and attract students will
remain key to restoring fund balance levels to the 5%-10% policy target
and maintaining its underlying 'A' rating.
MODERATE DEBT AND LONG-TERM LIABILITIES
The district's debt burden is moderate at 3.0% of market value and
$1,365 per capita. All debt matures within 10 years. The district does
not anticipate further new money debt in the coming three years.
The district participates in Michigan Public School Employees'
Retirement System (MPSERS), a cost-sharing multiple employer teacher's
plan whose funded ratio is low at 61.3% or a Fitch-estimated 55.2%
(assuming a 7% rate of return). Fitch views the underfunded status of
the pension plan as a long-term risk, increases for which will likely
present increased future budgetary pressure for the district. However,
the state's newly instituted program to stabilize local contribution
rates may shield the district from budgetary pressures.
District employees can participate in the MPSERS OPEB plan. District
OPEB costs were $5.4 million (3.6% of spending)for 2013.
Cost of carrying debt, pension, and OPEB was moderate at 19% in 2013.
The district's rapid debt amortization and limited future capital needs
somewhat offset concerns about increased pension/OPEB costs.
'AA' PROGRAM RATING
For further information on Michigan's School Bond Loan Fund Program, see
the press release dated July 17, 2013, which is available at www.fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by
information from Creditscope, University Financial Associates,
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, IHS (News - Alert) Global Insight, Zillow, and
National Association of Realtors.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);
--'U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);
--'Fitch Upgrades Michigan School Bond Loan Fund Program Rating to 'AA';
Outlook Stable' (July 17, 2013).
--'Rating Guidelines for State Credit Enhancement Programs', (April 18,
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Rating Guidelines for State Credit Enhancement Programs
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
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