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TMCNet:  Fitch Expects to Rate Alamo Re Ltd. Catastrophe Bond 'Bsf(EXP)'; Outlook Stable

[June 03, 2014]

Fitch Expects to Rate Alamo Re Ltd. Catastrophe Bond 'Bsf(EXP)'; Outlook Stable

NEW YORK --(Business Wire)--

Fitch Ratings expects to rate the series 2014-1 principal at-risk variable rate notes issued by Alamo Re Ltd., a duly formed special-purpose insurer in Bermuda, as follows:

--Principal at-risk variable rate notes with amount to be determined by sponsor; expected maturity June 7, 2017 'Bsf(EXP)', Outlook Stable.

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The notes are exposed to insured catastrophe losses, solely to wind damage, due to 'named storms' on an indemnity basis from subject business written by the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA). The subject business covers the 14 first-tier, seacoast counties of Texas (and a small portion of Harris County). This represents $84.4 billion (as of Dec. 31, 2013) of total insured value that is primarily residential (85%) and commercial (15%) with very little exposure to mobile homes. Galveston and Brazoria counties represent 50% of the total insured value.

On a historical basis, there have been 37 hurricanes that have made landfall in Texas since 1900. Recent hurricanes, Dolly and Ike (two events in 2008) would have caused an estimated 26% principal loss to the notes. Hurricane Rita (2005) would not have caused any losses. Four hurricanes prior to 1933 would have totally exhausted the notes.

Initially, noteholders are subject to principal loss (and reduced interest) if annual aggregate ultimate net losses exceed the attachment point of $1.90 billion and a total loss of principal occurs if the severity reaches $3.25 billion in the first 12-month risk period. A named storm must generate at least $50 million in ultimate net losses to be included in the aggregate total. Based on the profile of the initial attachment point, the modeled annual aggregate exceedance probability is estimated at 3.80%, which implies a 'Bsf' rating per Fitch's criteria.

There are three annual risk periods over the term of the note. Thus, the notes will 'reset' on June 1, 2015 and June 1, 2016 using an escrow software model and TWIA providing updated subject business data. At each reset date, TWIA may exercise an option to adjust the attachment levels within an exceedance probability range of 4.40% to 1.75%. The implied rating under Fitch's criteria at a 4.40% exceedance probability is 'Bsf', and the implied rating at 1.75% is 'BB-sf'. If such an option is exercised by TWIA at either reset date, the risk interest spread will be recalculated to reflect the increased (or decreased) level of risk assumed by the noteholders. If TWIA does not elect to reset the attachment levels, the reset agent will adjust the attachment points to maintain the initial 3.80% exceedance probability using the updated subject business profile.

The notes may be extended for three additional years if certain qualifying events occur, or at the discretion of Hannover Ruck SE, a reinsurance company that acts as a transformer and sits between TWIA and Alamo Re. However, the notes are not exposed to any further catastrophe events during this extension. The notes may be redeemed at any time due to regulatory or tax law changes or partially by TWIA during the extension period or under early redemption events. The repayment of the notes to the noteholders occurs subsequent to any qualified payments to TWIA for covered events. Noteholders have no recourse to TWIA (or to its transformer, Hannover Ruck, SE).

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating is based on the weakest link amongst the evaluation of the natural catastrophe risk, the business profile of TWIA, the counterparty risk of the transformer (Hannover Ruck SE) and the credit risk of the collateral assets. The natural catastrophe risk represents the weakest link and currently drives the note rating.

The rating analysis in support of the evaluation of the natural catastrophe risk is highly model-driven. As with any model of complex physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. Fitch is neutral to any of the major catastrophe modeling firms that is selected by the issuer to provide the model analysis, and thus Fitch did not include any explicit margins or qualitative haircuts to the probability of loss metric provided by the modeling firm.

The probability of loss was initially estimated at 3.80% based on a one-year simulated period as calculated b a third-party modeler, AIR Worldwide (AIR) using their methodology and proprietary models, but as noted, could be adjusted by TWIA to range between 1.75% and 4.40% at each reset period. Results from other possible modelers or from TWIA were not provided. Sensitivity analysis provided by AIR indicated the implied rating would be no worse than 'Bsf'.

The risk modeling included certain stresses for economic demand surge, storm surge and a loss adjustment expense factor of 1.10. Debris removal was not explicitly modeled but is implicit in the claim data history. The modeled results did not include the possibility that the average annual loss may increase by 1.10 in any annual risk period. The model simulates only hurricane activity making landfall, thus it understates claim losses to named storms not recognized as hurricanes or hurricanes that become degraded. Noteholders are exposed to this basis risk or the difference between actual net losses incurred by TWIA and the AIR modeled net losses.

Alamo Re ultimately 'follows the fortunes' of TWIA in regards to underwriting of new business over the next three years and claim management practices. TWIA was established by the Texas Legislature in 1971 as a residual insurer of last resort. Although applicants must have been denied coverage by at least one commercial insurer, all properties insured by TWIA must be certified as built to specified building codes, must have flood insurance coverage in specified flood areas and have maximum limits per residential dwelling of $1,773,000 (higher limits are available for commercial structures).

Fitch believes certain other safeguards are in place for noteholders: TWIA is subject to review, oversight and approval by the Texas Department of Insurance (though it receives no federal, state or local funds for support); there is an independent claim reviewer and loss reserve specialist (Deloitte (News - Alert) & Touche Ltd., Bermuda) for Alamo Re; and the data quality of the subject business provided to AIR appears adequate.

For this catastrophe bond structure, TWIA will retain at least 5% of the aggregate ultimate net loss on a first-dollar basis. It also has the ability to issue up to $1.5 billion of public securities funded by premium surcharges levied against policyholders and member assessments to commercial insurance companies. Above the initial modeled attachment of $1.9 billion, claim losses are shared between noteholders and traditional reinsurers on a pro-rata basis depending on the ultimate deal size.

Hannover Ruck SE (IDR 'A+', Outlook Positive) acts as the transformer for TWIA and Alamo Re. Noteholders are exposed to the risk that Hannover Ruck SE does not pass along retrocession premiums to Alamo Re. These premiums are a key component in the coupon payment to noteholders.

Proceeds from this issuance will be held in a collateral account and used to purchase highly-credit-quality money market funds meeting defined eligibility criteria; otherwise funds will be held in cash. Investment yields generated from these permitted investments are passed directly to noteholders. A downgrade of a permitted investment will not necessarily lead to a replacement of that investment. Further, noteholders are exposed to possible market value risk if the net asset value of a money market fund falls below $1.00. Finally, certain actions may be required if the collateral account is invested in money market funds and Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is deemed to apply in late 2016.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

This rating is sensitive to the occurrence of a qualifying event(s), TWIA's election to reset the note's attachment levels, changes in the data quality or purpose of TWIA, the counterparty rating of Hannover Ruck SE and the rating on the assets held in the collateral account.

If a qualifying covered event occurs, Fitch will downgrade the note to reflect an effective default, and issue a Recovery Rating.

In the case of a reset election by TWIA, the rating would not be sensitive to a movement from the initial 3.80% exceedance probability to a probability as high as 4.40%, since both probabilities imply a 'Bsf' rating. However, if as of the June 1, 2016 reset date TWIA elects to move closer to an exceedance probability of 1.75%, the notes at that time could be upgraded to as high as 'BB-sf'.

The escrow model may not reflect future methodology enhancements by AIR which may have an adverse or beneficial effect on the implied rating of the notes were such future methodology considered.

Fitch's expected rating is based on a review of a draft Offering Circular (dated May 17, 2014), a Rating Agency Presentation (dated May 21, 2014) and AIR Expert Risk Analysis and Results (dated May 20, 2014). The final rating is contingent upon receipt of signed legal documents pertinent to this transaction that do not materially change what has currently been reviewed. Any changes could lead Fitch to an alternative rating or inability to rate the note.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Insurance Link Securities' (August 2012);

--'Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria' (May 2013);

--'Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds' (May 2013).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=748821

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158

Additional Disclosure

Solicitation Status

http://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=832766

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON (News - Alert) THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.


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