|[November 14, 2012]
Fitch Downgrades Roseville JUHSD, CA's GOs to 'AA'; Outlook Stable
SAN FRANCISCO --(Business Wire)--
Fitch Ratings downgrades to 'AA' from 'AA+' the rating on the following
Roseville Joint Union High School District (the district), California
general obligation (GO) bonds:
--$107.9 million (election of 1992) series A, B, and 1998C, and
(election of 2004) series A, B, and C.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
The bonds are secured by unlimited ad valorem property taxes on property
within the district.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
DOWNGRADE CONSIDERATIONS: The 'AA' reflects Fitch's belief that the
district will continue to face operating pressures given its reliance on
state revenues in light of longer-term state funding uncertainties
(despite the recent passage of state Proposition 30). Fitch is concerned
that resultant reserve levels would be insufficient to mitigate credit
concerns related to the below-average economic profile.
STRONG FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT: The high rating importantly reflects the
district's experienced management team which budgets prudently, commits
to maintaining reserves in excess of minimum state requirements,
cultivates good labor relations, and protects the district's strong
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY: The district's slowly growing population, good
mix of commercial and industrial businesses, and historically
above-average wealth indicators partially offset concerns about
continued economic weakness given the very high local unemployment rate
and four years of taxable assessed valuation (TAV) declines in a
weakened property market.
SOLID GENERAL FUND BALANCE: The passage of state Proposition 30 and
avoidance of trigger cuts in fiscal 2013 positions the district well to
maintain solid general fund balances going forward, albeit at a slightly
lower level than in fiscal years 2011 and 2012. A good level of spending
flexibility and liquidity remains.
MANAGEABLE LONG-TERM LIABILITIES: The district's debt burden is easily
affordable and overall debt is moderate. Fitch expresses some concern
over the district's likely increasing pension costs due to state pension
system investment losses, but they too are currently manageable.
The district is located 16 miles northeast of Sacramento. The majority
is in Placer County, with a small portion in Sacramento County.
STABLE FINANCIAL OPERATIONS
A key credit positive is the district's strong financial management
reflected in various steps taken to preserve both high academic
standards and financial flexibility. The district has not had to make
drastic spending cuts, relying instead on budget balancing measures such
as repurposing of state categorical funding and the receipt of
non-recurring federal funding, multiple department and program savings,
as well as the benefits from ongoing student enrollment increases.
The district ended fiscal 2011 with positive operations which
contributed to a very strong unrestricted general fund balance of $20.1
million or 27.9% of spending. The district intentionally maintained high
total general fund balances, well in excess of the 3% minimum state
reserve requirement and the additional 2.42% school board requirement,
as a rainy day reserve against ongoing state revenue pressure and to
fund start-up costs associated with the district's upcoming sixth high
school. Due to slower than projected population growth, this sixth
school is now not expected to open until 2017. The district ended fiscal
2011 with good liquidity.
The district estimates that its fiscal 2012 unrestricted general fund
balance will remain strong despite a $1.5 million draw down as a result
of fiscal 2011 carryovers and state funding cuts. The district is
projecting an unrestricted general fund balance of $18.6 million or
24.7% of spending.
Fiscal 2013 trigger cuts were avoided with the passage of state
Proposition 30 and the district no longer expects a sharp drawdown of
its general fund balances in fiscal years 2013-2015 in order to protect
its academic programs. Instead, the district is budgeting a smaller $4.2
million draw down in fiscal 2013 which would decrease the total general
fund balance to a still strong $14.9 million or 19.4% of spending. The
district projects a steady state total general fund balance of around
$12.2 million or 16% of spending in fiscal years 2014 and 2015. Fitch
expects the district to meet or exceed its projections, consistent with
its historical practice of outperforming conservative budgets and
MIXED SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
The district continues to benefit from a slowly growing population and
consequent gradual student enrollment growth. While largely residential,
there is a good mix of commercial and industrial businesses, assisted by
proximity to Interstate-80. The district's historically above-average
wealth indicators continue to withstand the high unemployment rate
(10.6% for the metropolitan statistical area in August 2012), which has
begun declining over the last two years.
TAV decreased 3.8% in fiscal 2010, 6.5% in 2011, and 4.2% in fiscal 2012
due predominantly to residential property value declines, after
historically strong growth. A further minor TAV decline as anticipated
by the district for fiscal 2013 could suggest local property market
stabilization. Foreclosures and new residential construction are both
trending positively. Sutter Health's establishment of an administrative
service center in a leased facility in Roseville, from 2013 onwards,
will reduce the city's office vacancy rate by 20%, according to city
MANAGEABLE LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS
Overall debt is moderate at $4,397 per capita or 3.4% of TAV. Debt
amortization is average with approximately half repaid in 10 years. The
district participates in CalSTRS for its certificated employees and
CalPERS for its classified employees, and has very limited other
post-employment benefit exposure. Increased employer pension
contributions, due to pension system investment losses, have the
potential to place some additional pressure on the district's general
fund going forward given the district's stated intention to draw down
its unrestricted general fund balance. However, Fitch expects carrying
costs to remain affordable given their current low level; direct debt,
pension, and other post-employment benefit (OPEB) obligations are low at
5.2% of fiscal 2011 general fund and debt service fund spending.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and
therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by
information from Creditscope, University Financial Associates,
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, IHS (News - Alert) Global Insight, Zillow.com, and
National Association of Realtors.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);
--'U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
U.S. Local Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
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